EUR \ USD Home disposition (mid-January 2013), meeting new highs

» Posted by on Feb 25, 2013 in Other news | 0 comments

Now the currency pair EUR / USD is trading at 1.3346 -1.3347. A tendency major consolidation. By a result of which, the European currency have been likely to bring to the levels above 1.34.

Istonik: Metatrader

Fig. 1 EUR / USD hourly chart

Do not forget that for a long time Eurocurrency is on an upward trend (about 7 months.), And managed to collect enough mass of liquidity and interest. This allows a shorter trend to rely on interest long. Ie growth to 1.34 is not accompanied by large-scale fixing (profit) and sales, as there is to rely on – a long upward trend (see Fig. 2).
Istonik: Metatrader

Fig. 2 EUR / USD daily chart

Figure 2 also shows that the upward trend in the long worked figure inverted head and shoulders. Ie global upward trend in Eurocurrency withstood a strong test of the fall. A strong emission signals competitors (TWIST and QE) could not distract the players appetite and liquidity in the weakening U.S.. And now, after this test and the new portion of the signals from the ECB, The euro may show a winning streak. Learn more about buy forex ea.

Surrender yen before and after the new year reinforce the benefits of Euro-currency as a reserve.

After rapid growth in the previous day (Thursday-Friday) and a new piece of verbal interventions by Mario Draghi (see previous review), there were small attempts fixing profits, but Eurocurrency quickly find buyers.

Consolidate the success of Euro-currency and evroaktivov as a class, the first in 2013 and the successful placement of the parameters (% coefficient of oversubscription, the bar to raise funds) placement Spanish gosbondov on Thursday (January 10). This is a super result (!), Who confirmed that investors are charged relatively bullish on European assets and the euro.

Ministry of Finance of Spain rescued from the auction 5.8 billion euros, despite the fact that the upper limit of the target range was set at 5 billion euros. Yield bonds for 3.4 billion euros maturing in 2015 fell to 2.476% from 3.282% at Auction Oct. 4, 2012, demand exceeded supply 2.07 times versus 2.03 times. Yield debt securities by 1.95 billion euros maturing in 2018 fell to 3.988% from 4.680% at an auction on November 8, demand exceeded supply by 2.59 times compared to 1.57 times. Yield of government bonds maturing in 2026 was equal to 5.555% from 5.593%, which were recorded in secondary markets before the placement. Demand for these securities exceeded supply 2.85 times (data: Kommersant).

Recall that in 2013 Spain will fetch 71 billion euros from the sale of bonds and notes, in 2012, the country has placed debt securities by 57.1 billion euros, which was 55% more than planned. Ie Spain in 2012, plans to increase the scope of raising funds through bond market by 39%. Not sickly! Walk Europe, America cries.

Bearish signal for the euro currency was the publication of data on the fall in industrial production in the euro area in November, up 0.3% compared to October, or 3.7 compared to November 2011

But, have the impression that the markets have ignored this signal, or, rather, took it as bullish for the euro currency?!.

Yes, upward. Why? Because the decline in industrial production in the euro area managers puts the situation when you need to attract more funds through treasury bonds to compensate for the drop-down demand fiscal transfers. In order to effectively raise funds through public debt should be kept stable euro. It turns out that the managers of the euro area have become hostages of the situation. Eskportery that do not make the main forecast, the fall in global demand and the decline of international trade seems to be looking for support from the government, and the devaluation will not help them. Prodevalvirovav euro can be many times more to lose on the outflow of capital and a downturn in the bond market.